Pandemic Aftershocks: Societal

Inflation​ Further​lockdowns​ Recession

Explore the report:

Six themes

Four perspectives

  1. Further lockdowns are likely to be needed in some countries, or local areas of countries over the course of the next 6–9 months.
  2. Different countries will be at different stages over the next year or so, with rapidly changing travel restrictions, making planning on any international scale very difficult.
  3. Other protective measures, such as masks, ventilation and social distancing, are still essential, but there are signs that people who are vaccinated are dropping their guard, and some countries are easing protections, prematurely. This is likely to lead to new local or national flare ups.
  4. Inflation is likely to become an issue, as a side effect of the economic support governments have provided during the pandemic, and spending being held back by businesses and individuals now being released as lockdowns are relaxed, and demands for pay rises being passed on by businesses. Surveys of purchasing managers already show that businesses are passing rising costs on as price rises, which means there is a realistic possibility that inflation will rise outside of central bank targets.
  5. Central banks are likely to respond to inflation with interest rate rises.
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